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Line graph depicting data from 200-2025, showing continuing projection data in lighter shades.

EPDC develops customized versions of its education projection tools. Past projects include a teacher need projection model and training workshop for the Ministry of Education of Namibia, and multiple models and report for the EFA Global Monitoring Report.

2010 Pakistan

In collaboration with AED’s Pre-STEP project and the Department of Education of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province (formerly known as NWFP) in Pakistan, EPDC developed a HIPE model designed to project pupil enrollment and teacher needs by gender, school, and district in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province. The HIPE analytic and planning tool also includes district-level education profiles with the most recent EMIS education data and projections to 2015. The tools and the manual are currently under development and will become available later online.

2010 Rwanda

In collaboration with AED's ITAC (Information Technology Application Center), EPDC developed a HIPE model with an education profile, user-interactive projection tool, and user-guide for the Rwandan primary school system at the national level. The profile presents the progress of the education system since 2000 and the HIPE model makes projections to 2015 on pupils, teachers, classrooms, textbooks, and finance based on user-set scenarios. The tools and the manual are currently under development and will become available later online.

2009 GMR

The EPDC and the Education for All Global Monitoring Report (EFA/GMR) team worked together to make projections relating to the EFA goals #1 (early childhood care), #2 (universal basic education) and #4(halve illiteracy). The goal of the project is to provide estimates of the costs and finance gaps to achieving targets relating to these EFA goals, by country, and for low income countries as a whole. The EPDC and the GMR team developed a costing projection model that will be available on the website, along with a background paper, and the projection results, in late 2009 when the GMR report 2010 is published.

The full Background report is available on the GMR website.

Find out more about baseline data, projection model, and estimated results and download them on GMR HIPE model page.

2009 Namibia

In 2009, the Ministry of Education (MoE) of Namibia, in collaboration with the Basic Education Support (BES), asked the EPDC to work with them to develop an education simulation model and train planners to use this model. The model allows users to project pupils and teacher need by grade, subject, language of instruction, separately for each of Namibia’s 13 sub-national regions.
NAMIBIA HIPE MODEL | MANUAL |

2009 Mozambique USAID

In 2009, USAID asked the EPDC to develop a sub-national projection model for Mozambique. The Mozambique HIPE model projects pupils by grade, resource needs and costs for Mozambique's provinces.
MOZAMBIQUE HIPE MODEL

2009 South Sudan HIPE model (under development)

In 2009,AED's System Services Group asked EPDC to develop a projection model for the Ministry of Education of South Sudan and . The South Sudan HIPE model projects pupils by grade, resource needs and costs for South Sudan's provinces, and is focused on primary education.

2008 GMR

In 2008 the Education for All Global Monitoring Report (EFA/GMR) team commissioned four studies from the EPDC as background papers to its GMR report 2009. The studies analyze: changes in inequalities in enrolment by wealth of pupils; the effects of underage and overage pupils on school efficiency as measured by promotion, repetition and dropout; sub-national differentials of learning and the correlations with other measures of school quality and quantity; projections of primary TNER, secondary NER, and gender parity; and updated global enrolment trend projections.

Find out more about the model and download it on the ProjecTrend page.
Results of the ProjecTrend projections are available on the Search projected data page.

The full Background report is available on the GMR website.

Working Papers on the individual studies:

2007 GMR

In 2007, the EPDC provided the Education for All Global Monitoring Report (EFA/GMR) team with two sets of global education projections. The primary set includes gross enrolment, total net enrolment, and the gender parity index and is based on UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS) historical data for these indicators. The second set includes projections of pupils, based on a cohort projection model.

Both projection models are available with pre-loaded updated UIS data, on the ProjecTrend model and ProEnrol pages.